Nagorno Karabakh: the enclave igniting eurasian tensions. What is the destiny of Azerbaijan?

In the heart of Eurasia, there exists a geopolitical powder keg just waiting for a spark – Nagorno Karabakh. This Armenian enclave, nestled within Azerbaijan’s territorial embrace, has emerged as a focal point of renewed tensions, threatening the fragile peace of the region.

Rewind to September 19th. The scenic city of Erevan, a haven of Armenian culture, experienced a sudden eruption of civil unrest. As demonstrators faced off against the police, it became evident that these clashes were but a surface manifestation of the simmering tensions surrounding Nagorno Karabakh.

The enclave’s significance cannot be overstated. It represents a complex tapestry of history, national pride, and geopolitical intrigue. The unfolding events in the region should be seen against the backdrop of an assertive Azerbaijan, which has, for months, enforced a strategic blockade on Nagorno Karabakh. With the globe still reeling from the aftershocks of Russia’s moves in Ukraine, Baku senses a strategic window, aiming to parlay its military muscle into territorial gains.

So, what’s at stake here? The very soul of Stepanakert, Nagorno Karabakh’s capital, where tens of thousands of Armenians continue their millennia-old connection to the land. Azerbaijan’s recent overtures, couched in the language of “anti-terrorism operations” following the unfortunate demise of several police officers, betray a deeper intent.

The broader regional chess game, of course, includes Russia. Moscow, traditionally seen as the arbiter of the Caucasus, is engrossed in its endeavors elsewhere. Their perceived indifference in 2020, leading to Armenia’s unexpected setback against Azerbaijan despite an extant defense accord, raises eyebrows in diplomatic circles.

The United Nations, though vocal, finds itself in a paradox. A global institution designed to resolve disputes seems handicapped, as the drums of conflict beat ever louder in the Caucasus.

The Armenians of Karabakh find themselves at the eye of this storm. Their isolation is profound, and their sense of vulnerability palpable. Armenia, battling its internal issues, struggles to overturn the existing geopolitical calculus. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, having signaled a hands-off approach militarily, is now confronting backlash in the streets of Erevan.

Azerbaijan’s assertiveness crystallized on September 19th with an ultimatum to the denizens of Karabakh. The military ambitions of Baku extend beyond mere disarmament of Karabakh’s separatists; they envision a complete reintegration of the enclave.

Yet, lurking in the shadows is a more sinister narrative – whispers of impending ethnic displacement. Armenians, deeply rooted in their ancestral land, face an unsettling future. Historical precedents add weight to their fears. The forced relocation of Azerbaijani communities during Armenian control is a stark reminder of the region’s volatility.

Baku’s confident demeanor, reinforced by Turkey’s support and buoyed by its lucrative hydrocarbon trade, sends a clear signal. They believe destiny, and the balance of power, is on their side.